(H-L photo)
In the Cats-Buckeyes bash here in Newark, the big question appears to be how well will John Calipari’s young Kentucky team in defending big, bad Ohio State.
Well, if you look at the numbers closely, there is hope. That’s because Kentucky has been a pretty good defensive team this season.
For example, Ohio State is shooting a sterling 49.9 percent from the floor on the season. Only one Kentucky opponent has shot that well or better against the Cats all year. That was Kemba Walker and Connecticut way back in the Maui Invitational finals last November. The Huskies shot 57.7 percent on the way to crushing the Cats in the final. Since then, however, the best any team has shot against the Cats was Mississippi State’s 47.2 percent at Rupp in a Kentucky win on Feb. 15.
Now let’s look at three-point percentage, where Ohio State leads the nation at 42.4 percent. Seven teams have better that percentage against UK. The list:
- 11-24 Connecticut 7-12 for 58.3
- 1-3 Penn 8-12 for 66.7
- 1-18 Alabama 7-14 for 50.0
- 2-1 Ole Miss 8-17 for 47.1
- 2-8 Tennessee 9-16 for 56.3
- 2-12 Vanderbilt 11-20 for 55.0
- 2-15 Miss State 12-22 for 54.5
Kentucky lost four of those seven, falling to UConn, Alabama, Ole Miss and Vandy.
But Ohio State averages 18.3 three-point attempts per game. When you look at that list of seven teams, only Vanderbilt and Mississippi State attempted more than 18 threes.
Now look at the final date on that list, Feb. 15. In the 11 games since then, opponents have made just 55 of 179 three-pointers for 30.7 percent. In the most obvious turnaround, after making 11 of 22 threes against UK in Nashville on Feb. 12, Vandy made just two of 11 threes against UK on March 1 at Rupp. Kentucky lost the game in Memorial Gym, then won the game in Lexington.
Now let’s look at effective field goal percentage, the formula being (field goals + 0.5 X three-pointers) divided by field goal attempts. Ohio State is shooting an eFG of 56.8 for the season. Only two UK opponents beat that mark against the Cats. Connecticut’s eFG was 64.4. Mississippi State’s eFG was 58.5.
Back to the three-pointers for a second. Ohio State’s big three when it comes to threes are Jon Diebler, William Buford and David Lighty. Diebler is 110 of 220 on the season for an even 50 percent. Buford is 60 of 135 for 44.4. Lighty is 50 of 115 for 43.5. Combined, those three have taken 71.4 percent of Ohio State’s three-pointers on the season.
